Election Result 2008

There’s good reason to believe that the Republican stance on abortion may hinder them in 2008.

Hillary is known to be moderate on her abortion position; taking up her husband’s phrase of ’safe, legal, and rare’ to be her own platform. This will bring in more pro-lifers than Kerry was able to get in 2004.

The real trick is that Giuliani is pro-choice and John McCain is not too far away from Hillary concerning abortion. These two men are the highest polling potential Republican nominees. If Republicans decide they need to make a definitive stance toward pro-life both McCain and Giuliani may find themselves losing support from within.

This combined with Giuliani’s health problems and McCain’s age (68) may mean that Republican voters are given someone like Bill Frist.

That could be a very serious problem for the GOP.

Polls have been done that pitt John McCain one at a time against John Kerry and John Edwards. The results show that if the election were to be held today, McCain would beat Edwards 46% - 43% and would slaughter Kerry at 51% - 41%.

In two separate head-to-head contests, McCain holds a 10 per cent lead over Massachusetts senator and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, and a three per cent advantage over former North Carolina senator and vice-presidential choice John Edwards.
Source: Angus Reid

This adds to the evidence we’ve already seen (like When McCain told Kerry to give it up) that the next election will exclude the John/John ticket of 2004. Giuliani is traling McCain by a moderate margin but both of them are set to be likely candidates for the GOP. The Democrats have Hillary in a ridiculously strong lead so early on, but her competition has plenty of time to create an attack plan against her. It’s just as likely that we’ll see some newcomers to the primaries like Russ Feingold or even a returner like Wesley Clark (I hear he learned how to debate and give speeches since last election).

In an interview with Billy House John McCain has made it clear that he intends to run for the presidency in 2008.

I think I’m qualified to help make the world a better place; I’m qualified for the job.

McCain (68) gets checkups every three months for possible cases of melanoma. He’s had skin cancer before that was treated and removed but due to his age and his health there may be concerns about his ability to lead well.

Regarding Hillary McCain seemed respectful and impressed by her political power. He believes she has an excellent chance at getting the Democratic nomination in 2008 while he hopes to get his own nomination to run from the other side.

Regarding policy McCain said explicitly that he’s always fully supported Bush on Iraq and will continue to do so, so this rules out McCain’s chances of running from a non-republican platform in an attempt to garner the same support that Dean received.

McCain frequently pleaded the case of the nation’s eighth-largest cable company Cablevision between 2003 and 2004. At the same time he did this The Reform Institute (a non-profit group that he founded) received a total of $200,000 in support.

Some are calling this a conflict of interest but McCain is defending himself by pointing out that the non-profit is not a PAC and does not support his political campaign. He argues that it’s perfectly acceptible for him to defend a cause he believes in and for the cause to donate to other similar organizations.

Source : AP Enterprise

John McCain has always been a little distant from the ‘party line’ as he’s been found criticizing the president openly as well as voting in contrast to many Republicans from time to time. He’s always survived it because he’s a well-respected politician who is capable of making laws with his name on it work (see the McCain-Feingold act).

Despite this, he may not make it too far when the 2008 election comes around. He’s potentially losing support from the far right and the party members who’re looking for strong party unity. He’s recently voted against ANWR drilling and also against the anti-filibuster rule that Republicans are attempting to push through the Senate.

I’ve always respected him and I hope he does well, but we’ll have to see.

Bill Frist has continued to try to gain support through means that most Democrats and some Republicans find tasteless. The latest is his involvement in the debate on crippling the Senate filibuster. Frist has been a force behind this anti-filibuster movement that seeks to remove one of the last few weapons that Democrats have in rejected court appointees.

Such notable Republicans as Bob Dole and John McCain have openly opposed this idea. Bob Dole was subtle in advising the younger Frist that “this will not always be a Republican Senate” - suggesting that the future GOP may desire the filibuster.

McCain was less subtle. He spoke on Hardball about his views on the appropriate measures to take regarding judicial appointees:

…why is it that after 200 years we cannot settle the issue of judges? Well, it’s a symptom of the problems we have with the bitter partisanship here in Washington.

When George W. Bush announced plans to invade Iraq in early 2002 millions of people were completely surprised. There was a strong attempt to get him to change his mind, including demonstrations by thousands of people across the world. By ignoring the voices of informed people and proceeding with a plan to invade he permanently alienated a large percentage of Americans. That he has many enemies was evident in the fierce campaign against Bush in 2004.

It is because of this that the respect given to John McCain is impressive. While the GOP was railed against by all number of progressive (and even conservative) grassroots movements John McCain seemed to be excluded from the unmetered hatred.

John McCain has criticized Bush on several occasions:

• On the Environment
• On Iraq
• On Pat Buchanan
• On Bush’s 2004 Campaign

It is because of this shared criticism of Bush that John McCain could do very well against a Democratic nominee. Especially if that nominee is perceived as having betrayed liberals as Senator Clinton is believed to be doing.

NewKerala.com reports that according to the new Quinnipiac poll there’s a dead match between Clinton, McCain and Juliani.

The Marist Poll reports

McCain outdistances Senator Clinton by 12 points. In a hypothetical
match-up for president in 2008, McCain receives the support of 54%
of voters nationwide compared with 42% for Clinton.

Voters divide over whether they would like to see Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani as their next president. Clinton receives 47% compared to Giuliani’s 49%.

John McCain, having run in the Republican Primary in 2000, shows a lead over Hillary Clinton in a poll taken across all potential voters. Hillary has been suspected of having planned carefully for running in 2008 since well before the 2004 election.

McCain, known for his bipartisan respect and his commitment to speak for his values even against party lines, seems to have garnished the kind of respect otherwise reserved for folks like Barack Obama