Election Result 2008

Rudy Giuliani has opted not to run in the upcoming Senate and gubernatorial races means that he’s gotta be aiming for the presidency. It’s unnofficial - just pieced together by circumstancial evidence - but it worked in predicting Hillary’s run just fine. She made no move for the 2004 election and while denying that she’d try to oust Kerry’s 2004 spot she was eerily silent regarding 2008.

Giuliani seems to have a good chance too. He’s the most desirable GOP candidate according to the latest Marist College poll. 24% would vote for Giuliani compared to 20% for John McCain and 10% for Jeb Bush.

There’s good reason to believe that the Republican stance on abortion may hinder them in 2008.

Hillary is known to be moderate on her abortion position; taking up her husband’s phrase of ’safe, legal, and rare’ to be her own platform. This will bring in more pro-lifers than Kerry was able to get in 2004.

The real trick is that Giuliani is pro-choice and John McCain is not too far away from Hillary concerning abortion. These two men are the highest polling potential Republican nominees. If Republicans decide they need to make a definitive stance toward pro-life both McCain and Giuliani may find themselves losing support from within.

This combined with Giuliani’s health problems and McCain’s age (68) may mean that Republican voters are given someone like Bill Frist.

That could be a very serious problem for the GOP.

Despite the hard work being done by Senators like Bill Frist to generate popularity out of thing air, polls say that Rudy Guiliani has a healthy lead over Frist and McCain. It seems to be that the popularity of his book Leadership coupled with his years as mayor of New York have won him not only a chance to speak during last year’s election events, but perhaps to participate directly in them next time.

Giuliani hasn’t exactly mentioned publicly that he’ll be seeking the presidency, but he has plenty of time to do so. If he wants to, he can quietly build support the way Hillary is doing before giving any formal declaration of an intent to run.