Election Result 2008

Despite the hard work being done by Senators like Bill Frist to generate popularity out of thing air, polls say that Rudy Guiliani has a healthy lead over Frist and McCain. It seems to be that the popularity of his book Leadership coupled with his years as mayor of New York have won him not only a chance to speak during last year’s election events, but perhaps to participate directly in them next time.

Giuliani hasn’t exactly mentioned publicly that he’ll be seeking the presidency, but he has plenty of time to do so. If he wants to, he can quietly build support the way Hillary is doing before giving any formal declaration of an intent to run.

The New York Post Online Edition runs a story by Deborah Orin with some very telling facts about voters’ willingness to vote for a woman president.

Apparently, there appears to be support for a woman president when pollsters ask likely voters whether they would vote for one. This could be written of to the desire to be PC so one pollster has asked likely voters if their friends would vote for a woman president. While this also isn’t the most accurate way to tell real-world votes it had some surprising results. Those who say 72% that they would vote for a woman also reported that only 49% of their friends and family would.

The full statistics

Among seniors, 62 percent claim they’d be willing to vote for a woman, but said only 32 percent of their friends and family would.

Among Democrats, 84 percent said they’d be willing to vote for a woman, but only 59 percent said their friends would.

Among Republicans, it’s a 61-to-41 percent gap; among women, 75-to-51 percent, and among men, 68-to-47 percent.

Robert Novak writes on the Iowa caucus and Hillary’s chances.

Prominent Democrats are advising Sen. Hillary Clinton that, if she runs for president in 2008 as expected, she should avoid the Iowa caucuses as the first competition for the Democratic nomination.

Iowa is far enough left that to win the caucus there would require a swing from Hillary that counter’s her recent move to the center. It’s true that she’s been giving some fiery speeches lately but those have been primarily about specific people and events. She’s changed her actual platform to something that’s beginning to resemble the right.

Some have said that leaning far left in Iowa, while assuring John Kerry the nomination, became his downfall when he tried to move from that position.

McCain frequently pleaded the case of the nation’s eighth-largest cable company Cablevision between 2003 and 2004. At the same time he did this The Reform Institute (a non-profit group that he founded) received a total of $200,000 in support.

Some are calling this a conflict of interest but McCain is defending himself by pointing out that the non-profit is not a PAC and does not support his political campaign. He argues that it’s perfectly acceptible for him to defend a cause he believes in and for the cause to donate to other similar organizations.

Source : AP Enterprise

Two weeks ago Senator Mark Dayton introduced Hillary Clinton as the “next great President of the United States.” Two days later John Kerry came up to him on the Senate floor and demanded to know why he was endorsing Kerry’s opponent.

I guess this means John Kerry will attempt a democratic nomination for the 2008 presidential election. He appears to be serious because after 20 years in the Senate he’s just now really participating in the legislation. It might help his chances to be seen as a more invested legislator - but polls already show that 39%-20% people would vote for Hillary Clinton over John Kerry. He may have a chance if he begins a tour of speeches like Clinton’s been doing for over a year - but he’ll have to play catch up.

It looks like he’s definitely lost the lead.

John McCain has always been a little distant from the ‘party line’ as he’s been found criticizing the president openly as well as voting in contrast to many Republicans from time to time. He’s always survived it because he’s a well-respected politician who is capable of making laws with his name on it work (see the McCain-Feingold act).

Despite this, he may not make it too far when the 2008 election comes around. He’s potentially losing support from the far right and the party members who’re looking for strong party unity. He’s recently voted against ANWR drilling and also against the anti-filibuster rule that Republicans are attempting to push through the Senate.

I’ve always respected him and I hope he does well, but we’ll have to see.

Wesley Clark gave a speech at a California convention right before Howard Dean was to speak. What he said left little room for denying that he intends to seek the presidency in 2008.

Clark spoke much of Iraq and terrorism. He attributed what successes there have been to the long-standing desire for self-rule by Arabs and the hard work of servicemen and servicewomen. He knocked President Bush on several available topics and criticized the GOP for the way they treat Democrats.

When asked whether he’ll run again he responded (to cheers of jubilance): “Well… I’ll have to take your advice about that.”

Sources:
Daily Kos - Clark in ‘08?
1115.org - Clark ‘08

“A fundamental element of the American character: a belief that we can constantly remake ourselves to fit our larger dreams.”

That’s part of what Barack Obama had to say in Lincoln, Illinois to commemorate the opening of the Abraham Lincoln Library andMuseum in Springfield, Ill. Barack Obama was compared to Lincoln in an article discussing the similarities between the Keyes-Obama and Lincoln-Douglas oppositions.

President Bush was present and used his speech to compare the civil war and the tension of slavery to the modern war on terrorism and the tension of Iraq. Obama countered this with an expression of the hesitant nature of many of Lincoln’s executive judgements and the slow and conservative way that he went to war:

“Lincoln was not a perfect man nor a perfect president. By modern standards, his condemnation of slavery might be considered tentative, his Emancipation Proclamation more a military document than a clarion call for justice. He wasn’t immune to political considerations. His temperament could be indecisive and morose.”

Sources: Associated Press

Bill Frist has continued to try to gain support through means that most Democrats and some Republicans find tasteless. The latest is his involvement in the debate on crippling the Senate filibuster. Frist has been a force behind this anti-filibuster movement that seeks to remove one of the last few weapons that Democrats have in rejected court appointees.

Such notable Republicans as Bob Dole and John McCain have openly opposed this idea. Bob Dole was subtle in advising the younger Frist that “this will not always be a Republican Senate” - suggesting that the future GOP may desire the filibuster.

McCain was less subtle. He spoke on Hardball about his views on the appropriate measures to take regarding judicial appointees:

…why is it that after 200 years we cannot settle the issue of judges? Well, it’s a symptom of the problems we have with the bitter partisanship here in Washington.

Bill Frist has been seeking a presidential nomination for 2008 by gathering support from the right side of his party. His efforts seem to be working to the effect that there is a growing Christian Right base that is listening closely to his campaigning.

Frist is in no small way indicative of an early Howard Dean primary run. I remember the first time I heard Dean speak was well, well before the 2004 election and even quite before the primary. I immediately liked him because he reflected my far-left leanings and he did it with diction and poise (yes, poise) that most folks at either edge of the political spectrum lack.

There are two articles written about how Frist is beginning to alienate his party by going for the cheap, the easy, and the extreme right. He’s been siding with those who would claim that the U.S. Supreme Court is ‘out to get’ Christian heritage and values. He’s also (sickeningly) spoke up during the Terri Schaivo matter.

Tom Perkins, president of the Family Research Counsil, has spoken at length about the ‘agenda’ of the judicial branch. From a page on the Counsil’s website:

“For years activist courts, aided by liberal interest groups like the A.C.L.U., have been quietly working under the veil of the judiciary, like thieves in the night, to rob us of our Christian heritage and our religious freedoms.”

This is the Republican equivalent to the Democratic college revolutionary. Frist is marketing himself to the edge of his party’s constituency and it’ll take nothing more than a screen for his fellow republicans to remove him from the picture as an embarrassment to the party.